大数据时代巨量的数据并没有减少我们对于未来的焦虑。有用信息与噪声的比率是下降了。也就是获取有用信息其实更难了。而作者谦逊的说道希望本书能够让我们在我们所知的和以为所知的之间的间距有所减少。
我们需要以一种概率的方法学来思考和预测问题。而采用贝叶斯理论需要我们知道自己的起点。懂得尝试并调整的价值和意义。最后作者也对于预测本身进行了思考。
金句：
We have big brains, but we live in an incomprehensibly large universe. The virtue in thinking probabilistically is that you will force yourself to stop and smell the data-slow down, and consider the imperfections in your thinking. Over time, you should find that this makes your decision making better.
The serenity to accept the things we cannot predict, the courage to predict the things we can, and the wisdom to know the difference.
