The economy is bouncing back, entering a reflation period in which both growth and inflation rise. This benefits some assets more than others.
Reflation beneficiaries:
推荐金融和能源股,以及价值股
We see potential for financials and energy to continue to rally, as well as broader value stocks in the US.
Financials benefit not only in a reflationary environment of higher yields and a steeper yield curve, but also from stronger growth via a reduction in nonperforming loans and the positive impact on earnings revisions from lower loan provisions.
We also like oil, supported by our expectations for a strong recovery in global activity and OPEC’s continuing production restraint. US energy stocks should benefit, as they have not fully priced in the increase in Brent to USD 75/bbl by year-end that we expect.
In the US, we have moved US large cap value stocks to most preferred alongside our existing preference for small-caps and mid-caps. Recent outperformance of growth over value has created a more attractive entry point, given our expectation for yields to rise towards 2% by the end of the year and for economic growth to remain strong.
We also see potential for continued outperformance for small-caps over large-caps. Valuations remain historically attractive: The price to book value ratio of MSCI World small caps relative to the MSCI World is almost two standard deviations lower than the long-term average.
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通胀预期下的机会:
资源(能源,化工,大宗商品)、原材料、金融 以及有能力转移成品的高端制造业都是受益于通胀的。
资源股(煤炭、石油、化工),强周期行业
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附一份经典的美林时钟--大类资产配置
美林投资时钟理论是一种将“资产”“行业轮动”“债券收益率曲线”以及“经济周期四个阶段”联系起来的方法，是一个非常实用的指导投资周期的工具。
美林投资时钟理论按照经济增长与通胀的不同搭配，将经济周期分为四个阶段：
1、“经济上行、通胀下行”构成复苏阶段，此阶段由于股票对经济的弹性更大，其相对债券和现金具备明显超额收益。
2、“经济上行、通胀上行”构成过热阶段，在此阶段，通胀上升增加了持有现金的机会成本，可能出台的加息政策降低了债券的吸引力，股票的配置价值相对较强，而商品则将明显走牛。
3、“经济下行、通胀上行”构成滞胀阶段，现金收益率提高，持有现金最明智，经济下行对企业盈利的冲击将对股票构成负面影响，债券相对股票的收益率提高。
4、“经济下行、通胀下行”构成衰退阶段，在衰退阶段，通胀压力下降，货币政策趋松，债券表现最突出，随着经济即将见底的预期逐步形成，股票的吸引力逐步增强。
收益率：复苏，股票》债券》现金》大宗商品；过热，大宗商品》股票》现金/债券；滞胀，大宗商品》现金/债券》股票；衰退，债券》现金》大宗商品，股票》大宗商品。
参考:
https://www.ubs.com/global/en/wealth-management/chief-investment-office/investment-opportunities/key-investment-ideas/2021/position-for-reflation.html?campID=NL-GLOBAL-ENG-CIOMESSAGE-01-05-WEEKLY10052021
https://www.zhihu.com/question/435252579
https://zhuanlan.zhihu.com/p/46071282
http://www.360doc.com/content/20/0917/14/256040_936216061.shtml
https://blog.csdn.net/zk168_net/article/details/103731176
