Opinion 10:12, 24-Jan-2022

'Ukraine crisis' is in fact a Russia-U.S. missile crisis

Andrew Korybko

The world is waiting with bated breath to see what'll happen next in Eastern Europe after the U.S.-led West insists that Russia is about to invade Ukraine any moment now. They even accused Russia of secretly plotting to overthrow the Ukrainian government. Moscow of course denies all these allegations and describes them as fake news. Nevertheless, the prevailing narrative is that there is an unprecedented crisis brewing in Ukraine that many consider to be the worst-ever since the end of the Cold War.

【词语解释和扩展】

1.bate  v. （鹰）鼓翅躁动；使软化；减少；缓和，减弱；衰落

bated adj. 除去的；减去的  

bated breath 就是屏住呼吸的意思，全世界都在屏住呼吸等待，在以美国为首的西方认为俄罗斯分分钟都会入侵乌克兰的时候，东欧将会发生什么事。非常生动的表达，学到了。

类似的词语  abate v. <正式>（使）减轻，减少；<法律>废除；消除（妨碍行为）；（指令状、法律诉讼等）无效

2.brew v. 酝酿，即将来临，指的是一个前所未有的危机正在乌克兰酝酿

That, however, isn't the most accurate assessment of what's happening. The latest crisis isn't so much about the status of the self-declared republics of Eastern Ukraine's Donbas region, nor even just about that country's potential membership in NATO, but about Russian intelligence's suspicions that the U.S. plans to deploy strike weapons – including hypersonic ones – to the region under the cover of "anti-missile systems" in response to what they warn might be a provocation that they would spark there.

This interpretation of events might be a novel one for casual observers who haven't paid much attention to everything that's recently transpired in the region. That's why the purpose of this analysis is to explain the Russian position, which arguably has more credence than the U.S.-led Western one. It aims to raise awareness of just how serious everything is and why. In short, the situation is critical, but war can still possibly be averted so long as pragmatism prevails.

【词语解释和扩展】

isn‘t about..., nor..., but about 这个句式其实使用率很高的，在表达某个现象不是在于，也不在于，而是缘于某某事情。这里表达的就是，这个前所未有的危机不是在于东乌克兰的Donbas自称的共和国的法律地位，也不在于他们在北约的潜在会员国身份（乌克兰自行宣布成为北约成员国，但下一秒就被拜登打脸：还不够格），而是关于俄国的情报部门猜测美国会在反导弹系统的借口下为了应对有可能爆发的挑衅行动而在该地区部署包括超音速武器在内的攻击性武器。

arguably adv. 按理来说

credence n. 信任；凭证；

avert v. 防止，避免；转移

pragmatism  n. 实用主义；独断

pragmatic  adj. 讲求实际的，务实的；实用主义的；（语言学）语用的。这里指的是，现阶段形势非常关键，但是只要实用主义占优势，战争就有可能避免。

Russian President Vladimir Putin has consistently condemned the U.S.'s withdrawal from the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty during the first few years of then U.S. President George W. Bush. He warned that it risked upsetting the strategic balance between these nuclear superpowers. The Russian leader feared that the U.S.'s construction of so-called anti-missile facilities in Poland and Romania as well as deployment of relevant systems to the region under the pretext of an Iranian missile threat was a ruse.

Instead, he publicly expressed concerns that these were meant to neutralize his country's nuclear second-strike capabilities for ensuring what International Relations theorists regard as "mutually assured destruction (MAD)," or the guarantee that the U.S. and Russia would obliterate one another if they ever used nuclear weapons against each other. Putin worried that the U.S.'s moves might eventually place Russia in a position of nuclear blackmail vis-a-vis its Western counterpart.

【词语解释和扩展】

Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty 《反弹道导弹条约》是苏联和美国于1972年签署的一项双边条约，用于限制美苏两国的核竞赛，条约被视为全球战略稳定的基石。2001年12月13日，美国总统布什在白宫正式宣布退出美苏1972年签署的《反弹道导弹条约》。

ruse  n. 策略，计策；诡计

obliterate v. 消灭，摧毁；涂抹，遮蔽；(从头脑中) 抹掉；盖销（尤指邮票）

vis-a-vis 面对面的人，相对着

blackmail n.敲诈，勒索，胁迫，威胁，这里指的是美国推出了反弹道导弹条约打破世界核大国战略平衡等行为将俄罗斯置于对西方核威胁的位置上。

It was in response to this credible threat that Russian scientists prioritized their research and development of hypersonic missiles that couldn't be shot down by any of the U.S.'s regional "missile shields." That country then became the first to publicly announce such capabilities in March 2018, after which they were tested and subsequently went into service. Putin promised his people that this would ensure Russia's nuclear second-strike capabilities and thus protect global peace.

Instead of accepting the responsible return to the same strategic parity with Russia that the U.S. itself initially tried to undermine, the fading unipolar hegemon doubled down on its own hypersonic research and development programs. Worse still, Russia began accusing the U.S. of plotting to deploy strike weapons near its borders. These include hypersonic ones that it feared could even be deployed to Ukraine, which Putin warned in November 2021 would only take five minutes to reach Moscow.

【词语解释和扩展】

parity n.等价，同等，平等

double down 加倍下注，更加坚定的做某事

《反弹道导弹条约》是全球战略稳定的基石，美国的退出导致了美俄军备竞赛。俄罗斯指控美国甚至要在乌克兰部署超音速导弹，普京2021年也警告了此事，如果部署在乌克兰，只要五分钟就可以打到莫斯科。

Russian intelligence suspects that the pretext for deploying them to the region or even that civil war-torn country could be if Kiev initiates another round of hostilities in Eastern Ukraine, including under false flag pretexts. They might even enter the region under the cover of being so-called "anti-missile" systems but could be transformed into strike systems within a few minutes at the push of a button. The same fears hold true for the U.S.'s similar such systems in Poland and Romania according to Russia.

It's with these concerns in mind that Russia publicly proposed last month that the U.S. make several security guarantees to it that include legal promises not to include Ukraine into NATO, not to deploy strike weapons near its borders, and to roll back NATO's regional infrastructure to its pre-1997 status quo prior to the former Warsaw Bloc countries' membership in the alliance. These requests are designed to respect Russia's national security red lines and restore strategic stability.

【词语解释和扩展】

pretext  借口，托辞

war-torn 饱受战争破坏的

这段讲的是俄罗斯情报部门推测，如果东乌克兰再出现一些对抗行动，就会给美国部署武器带来借口。出于对这些问题的关注，俄罗斯提出草案希望美国做出承诺，包括不吸收乌克兰进北约，不在边境部署武器，并且北约的地区的军事设施退回到1997年之前，在前华约成员国加入之前的状态。

Should the U.S. not agree to Russia's security guarantees and makes moves in the direction of neutralizing its nuclear second-strike capabilities through the explained scenario, then Moscow already said that it reserves the right to defend its national security interests. It's unclear what form this could take, but it might be a mix of regional military deployments – including hypersonic ones – as well as limited action in Ukraine to neutralize imminent threats there or respond to border provocations.

Considering all of this, the Ukrainian civil war in Donbas is actually nothing more than a pretext for the U.S.-led West to exploit as the cover for deploying strike weapons to the region, whether to Ukraine or elsewhere like Poland. Even Ukraine's membership in NATO is just a proverbial tree in this larger strategic forest since that would just be the formal means to go through with the aforementioned scenario that could still proceed informally as was earlier warned about.

As incredulous as it may sound, the solution is simple enough, and it's for Ukraine to finally implement the Minsk Accords in order to remove the regional pretext for the U.S. to go through with these suspected plans. The U.S. must then respect Russia's red lines by complying with its security guarantee requests. Only then can strategic stability return to Europe and the world can step back from the brink of the worst-case scenario of a clash between these nuclear superpowers.

【词语解释和扩展】

Minsk Accords 明斯克协议

step back from the brink of a clash 从战争的边缘退回来