A new study finds that deaths in New York City in the early part of the Covid-19 pandemic were comparable to deaths in the city at the peak of what's considered the deadliest pandemic to date -- the flu pandemic of 1918.

一项新研究发现，在Covid-19大流行初期，纽约市的死亡人数可与当时被认为是迄今为止最致命的大流行高峰（1918年的流感大流行）相媲美。

The relative increase in deaths during the early period of the Covid-19 pandemic was actually substantially greater than during the peak of the 1918 pandemic, according to the study published Thursday in JAMA Network Open.

根据周四在JAMA Network Open上发表的研究，在Covid-19大流行初期，死亡的相对增加实际上比在1918年大流行高峰期间的相对增加要大得多。

"The big takeaway is that when we compare what happened, we find that the magnitude of change in deaths -- like how big a shock to the system this is -- these pandemics are very similar," said study co-author , an emergency physician at Brigham and Women's Hospital and is an instructor at Harvard Medical School. "In fact, if you think about it, Covid-19's a bigger shock to our health care system today because we have usually just a lower death rate than we did in 1918. So Covid-19 is a bigger change from norms for us than the 1918 flu was."

研究的共同作者说，“最大的收获是，当我们比较发生的事情时，我们发现死亡人数的变化幅度-就像对系统造成的冲击一样-这些大流行非常相似。”布莱根妇女医院的医生，哈佛医学院的讲师。 “事实上，如果您考虑一下，今天的Covid-19对我们的医疗保健系统将造成更大的冲击，因为我们的死亡率通常比1918年要低。因此，Covid-19对我们而言是一个更大的变化是1918年的流感。”

Faust said by comparing the first two months of the pandemic in New York to the worst two months of the pandemic in New York 100 years ago, the Covid-19 period had over 70% as many deaths per capita.

福斯特说，通过比较纽约大流行的头两个月与100年前纽约大流行的最坏两个月，Covid-19时期的人均死亡人数超过70％。

"Who knows what would be the case if we didn't have modern ICUs and we couldn't treat secondary infections with antibiotics or put people on ventilators or had oxygen," Faust said. "If you compare these viruses side by side, without all the medical bells and whistles we have today, I'd say Covid-19 is worse."

浮士德说：“谁知道如果我们没有现代化的重症监护病房，又无法用抗生素治疗继发性感染，或者不能让人们戴上呼吸机或有氧气，那将会是什么情况。” “如果将这些病毒并排比较，而没有我们今天拥有的所有医疗手段，我会说Covid-19更糟。”

"We'll never know that for sure, because thankfully now we have the ability to save more lives, but even with all our technology and medical progress, the death rate being 70% as bad as it was at the worst point in 1918, I think people don't realize how serious this is," Faust said.

“我们永远不会确定，因为值得庆幸的是，我们现在有能力挽救更多的生命，但是即使在我们所有的技术和医疗进步下，死亡率仍然是1918年最严重时期的70％，我认为人们没有意识到这有多严重。”

Faust said some people may underestimate how bad this pandemic is, because they are picturing a historic pandemic or plague, like something out of a movie where the cart pulls over on the side of the road and picks up bodies.

浮士德说，有些人可能低估了这种流行病的严重性，因为他们正在描绘历史性的流行病或瘟疫，就像电影中的一些东西一样，那辆车停在路边并捡起尸体。

"That's what those refrigerated trucks outside of the hospital are, by the way," Faust said.

福斯特说：“顺便说一下，这就是医院外面的那些冷藏卡车。”

The 1918 flu is estimated to have infected a third of the world's population and caused approximately 50 million deaths. Like with this pandemic, it impacted some communities more than others.

据估计，1918年的流感已感染了世界三分之一的人口，并造成约5000万人死亡。像这种大流行一样，它对某些社区的影响大于其他社区。

This study only takes into account data that is specific to New York City. It cannot be used to characterize the extent of this pandemic in other cities or nationwide. New York was hit hard early in the pandemic, and since then, other cities have learned from what worked early on, experts said.

本研究仅考虑到特定于纽约市的数据。它不能用来描述其他城市或全国大流行的程度。专家说，在大流行初期，纽约遭受了沉重打击，从那以后，其他城市也从早期工作中吸取了教训。

John Barry,  of the 2004 book "The Great Influenza," said he found the study results surprising.

约翰·巴里（John Barry）在2004年出版的《大流感》一书中说，他发现研究结果令人惊讶。

Barry, who was not involved in the new study, said from other indicators he thinks its clear that the 1918 pandemic was "considerably more virulent" than the Covid-19 pandemic, at least for the country.

没有参与这项新研究的巴里从其他指标中说，他认为很明显，至少对于该国来说，1918年的大流行比Covid-19大流行“更具致命性”。

"I guess when New York was hit we didn't really know how to handle cases yet. Since then we've learned a lot more," Barry said. "I think New York's death toll from Covid-19 is probably higher ... and that will be cut down after that first wave of exposure, but even still, I was surprised that there is no greater difference in these numbers."

“我想当纽约受到打击时，我们还真的不知道如何处理案件。从那以后，我们学到了很多东西，”巴里说。 “我认为纽约Covid-19的死亡人数可能更高……在第一波暴露之后，这一数字将会降低，但即使如此，我仍惊讶地发现这些数字之间没有更大的差异。”

In terms of deaths, New York had it better than many other cities in 1918, Barry said. The city was exposed to the virus in spring and saw 33,000 deaths over the course of the pandemic, which was a small number compared to some other cities.

巴里说，就死亡人数而言，纽约在1918年比其他许多城市要好。该城市在春季暴露于病毒，并在大流行期间造成33,000人死亡，与其他一些城市相比，这一数字很小。

Barry also said with the Covid-19 pandemic, doctors have more options to care for patients. There is no cure, but even the supportive care doctors provide patients now is much better than what patients had in 1918.

巴里还说，在Covid-19大流行中，医生有更多选择来照顾病人。目前尚无治愈方法，但即使是支持医生也为患者提供的服务比1918年的患者要好得多。

"In 1918, supportive care was non-existent," Barry said.

巴里说：“在1918年，不存在支持治疗。”

Faust said what he most wants people to take away from this study is the understanding of exactly how serious this pandemic is.

福斯特说，他最希望人们从这项研究中脱颖而出的是对这种流行病的严重程度的理解。

"We don't need to wait until the end of it to look back and see that these events are similar in magnitude," Faust said. "What I am driving home here is, that if we don't do something, if we don't take this really seriously, we very much a year from now, could be looking at those same numbers we saw from 1918."

浮士德说：“我们不需要等到结束时再回头看看这些事件的规模是相似的。” “我要开车回家的地方是，如果我们不做任何事情，或者如果我们不认真对待这一点，那么从现在起一年以后，我们可能会看到与1918年相同的数字。”

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