That India will overtake China as the world’s most populous country is not in question. But the date has just moved closer. The UN now reckons India will surpass China in 2022 rather than in 2028, as it thought two years ago. The new estimates put China’s fertility rate a bit lower, at 1.6 children per woman. India’s higher fertility rate (2.5 children per woman) and younger population mean it will swell faster, reaching 1.4 billion in 2022, when China’s population will peak. China’s working-age population is already shrinking as the country greys. India will eventually follow. By 2050 about 500m Chinese will be over 60, and 330m Indians.