Poor Charlie's Almanack(Talk 4 )

【读书三问】

阅读内容: 《穷查理宝典》 Poor Charlie's Almanack---Talk Four

"Practical Thought About Practical Thought?"

【1.印象最深刻的部分】内容中你觉得印象最深刻的部分是什么?

当然就是查理芒格提到的“如何把200万美元增至2万亿美元”的案例啊!满满都是套路啊!

【2.与现实的联系】这本书与现实之间有哪些联系?

今时今日,可口可乐早就成为享誉四海名扬天下的大品牌。英雄不问出处,富贵当问原由。机会总是留给有准备的人,成功的背后永远都有智慧的头脑和周密的计划。

【3.行动和改变】你可以做出哪些行动来改变你的现实生活?

1,继续低调地学习理财投资知识。李笑来说过,赚钱是一项所有人都必须会的技能,但它偏偏是一种学校里不会教的技能,也是大多数人终其一生都没有习得、或没有学得足够好的技能。这世界上从来就没有无缘无故的成功,天上掉馅饼也只会砸有准备的人。

2,文中提到爱因斯坦所说的,成功的四个因素分别是自我批评、好奇、专注和持之以恒( self-criticism, curiosity, concentration, and perseverance). 对知识我倒是一直是抱有好奇心的,无奈就是还不够持之以恒,这点有待加强。


Summary

This talk was delivered on July 20, 1996 to a group that has a policy of not publicizing its programs.

In this talk, Charlie explains how he makes decisions and solves problems by taking us step-by-step through a diverse set of "mental models." He presents a case study that asks rhetorically how the listener would go about producing a $2 trillion business from scratch, using as his example Coca-Cola.

这个演讲可分为三部分:

介绍五个基本概念

介绍一个典型案例

阐述其中渗透的重要教育启示

Charlie describes five of the helpful notions that he finds helpful in solving problems. 

The first helpful notion is that it is usually best to simplify problems by deciding big "no-brainer" questions first. 

The second helpful notion mimics Galileo's conclusion that scientific reality is often revealed only by math as if math was the language of God. Galileo's attitude also works well in messy, practical life. (数学的重要性)

The third helpful notion is that it is not enough to think problems through forward. You must also think in reverse. (逆向思考)

The fourth helpful notion is that the best and most practical wisdom is elementary academic wisdom. You must think in a multidisciplinary manner. (多学科思维)

The fifth helpful notion is that really big effects, lollapalooza effects, will often come only from large combinations of factors.

After that, he presents a problem of extreme scale. Indeed, the problem involves turning start-up capital of $2 million into $2 trillion, a sum large enough to represent a practical achievement. Then, he tries to solve the problem, assisted by his helpful general notions.

Solutions(把200万美元增至2万亿美元的对策):

1,  Make  "Coca-Cola" into a strong, legally protected trademark. (商标、品牌的重要性)

2, Developing a product having universal appeal. (开发出一种具有全球吸引力的产品,也就是“内容”的重要性)but how? 

by combining (1) much Pavlovian conditioning, (2) powerful social-proof effects, and (3) a wonderful-tasting, energy-giving, stimulating, and desirably cold beverage that causes much operant conditioning

首先通过合理的推测,能够打造出风靡全球的饮料,有市场,消费者购买力上升,饮用水的需求增长,同时,生产成本下降。以上条件对实现利润目标是利好的。

The essence of our business

we are going into the business of creating and maintaining conditioned reflexes. The "Coca-Cola" trade name and trade dress will act as the stimuli, and the purchase and ingestion of our beverage will be the desired responses.

And how does one create and maintain conditioned reflexes?

(1) by operant conditioning 

 (2) by classical conditioning

since we want a lollapalooza result, we must use both conditioning techniques and all we can invent to enhance effects from each technique. (结合两种条件反射的技巧,建立刺激性条件)

For operant conditioning rewards, there are only a few categories we will find practical:

(l) Food value in calories or other inputs;

(2) Flavor, texture, and aroma acting as stimuli to consumption under neural preprogramming of man rhrough Darwinian narural selection;

(3) Stimulus, as by sugar or caffeine;

(4) Cooling effect when man is too hot or warming effect when man is too cool.

Wanting a lollapalooza result, we will naturally include rewards in all the categories. (做法:生产一种冷饮料,在饮料中加入糖浆和咖啡因,不断尝试,研制出一种特别口味,同时,必须让饮料在最短的时间内遍布全世界。)

We must next consider the Pavlovian conditioning we must also use. In Pavlovian conditioning, powerful effects come from mere association. (做法:1,做广告。利用巴普洛夫的条件反射尽一切所能营造出尊贵典雅的印象,让消费者把饮料和促销自然而然地跟他们喜爱或崇拜的东西联系起来。广告的好处也就体现在这里了吧~We will spend big money as far ahead as we can imagine. But the money will be effectively spent. 2,精心选择口味、质感和色泽。3,选择一个充满异国情调且高雅的名字“可口可乐”。4,让饮料看起来像酒而不是苏打水)

There is that powerful "monkey-see, monkey-do" aspect of human nature that psychologists often call "social proof." (也就是在社会认可的作用下,模仿别人的消费行为,不仅能使客户纷纷尝试饮料,而且还可让消费者亲身体会到饮用的奖励。)

3, The logistics and the distribution strategy.

There are only two practical ways to sell our beverage: (1) as syrup to fountains and restaurants and (2) as a complete carbonated-water product in containers. Wanting lollapalooza results, we will naturally do it both ways.

4, Check for the business plan. 

We will, once more, think in reverse like Jacobi. What must we avoid because we don't want it? Four answers seem clear:

First, we must avoid the protective, cloying, stop-consumption effects of aftertaste. 做法:在不断尝试和屡次失败中找到一种美妙的口味。

Second, we must avoid ever losing even half of our powerful trademarked name.

Third, with so much success coming, we must avoid bad effects from envy. 做法:不断追求产品质量和合理价格,在无害的基础上给人们带来愉悦的感受。

Fourth, after our trademarked flavor dominates our new market, we must avoid making any huge and sudden change in our flavor.


Following that, Charlie suggests that there are important educational implications in his demonstration. 

our civilization now keeps in place a great many educators who can't satisfactorily explain Coca-Cola, even in retrospect, and even after watching it closely all their lives. This is not a satisfactory state of affairs.

That people so talented, surrounded by professional advisers from the best universities, should thus demonstrate a huge gap in their education is also not a satisfactory state of affairs.

Such extreme ignorance, in both the high reaches of academia and the high reaches of business is a lollapalooza effect of a negative sort, demonstrating grave defects in academia.

导致这结果的原因:

1, academic psychology lacks intradisciplinary synthesis

2, lack of synthesis blending psychology and other academic subjects

如何调整这种令人遗憾的教育缺陷?

postulating man's rationality

thinking in reverse

habitual objectivity and self-criticism



Vocabulary

profound  [prə'faʊnd]  adj.

1. 巨大的;深切的;深远的 very great; felt or experienced very strongly

2. 知识渊博的;理解深刻的;深邃的 showing great knowledge or understanding

3. 艰深的;玄奥的 needing a lot of study or thought

4. 严重的;完全的;彻底的 very serious; complete

conspiracy  [kən'spɪrəsi]  n.

1. 密谋策划;阴谋 a secret plan by a group of people to do sth harmful or illegal

eloquent  ['eləkwənt]  adj.

1. 雄辩的;有口才的;流利的 able to use language and express your opinions well, especially when you are speaking in public

2. 传神的 able to express a feeling

lassitude  ['læsɪ.tud]  n.

1. 倦怠;疲乏;无精打采 a state of feeling very tired in mind or body; lack of energy

integrity  [ɪn'teɡrəti]  n.

1. 诚实正直 the quality of being honest and having strong moral principles

2. 完整;完好 the state of being whole and not divided

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