Britannia ruled by waves
海洋统治大不列颠
Rising sea levels threaten Britain’s shores
上升的海平面在威胁大不列颠的海岸线
Pacific atolls aren’t the only places at risk of going under
太平洋岛礁并非唯一一个面临被淹没的危险之地
LOCOMOTIVES HAVE plied the Dawlish railway seawall, which hugs Devon’s beaches between Exeter and Newton Abbot, since 1846. Passengers are treated to magnificent views of the English Channel—and occasionally to a frisson, when rough seas break on the concrete groynes and envelop oncoming trains in sea spray. If, that is, the trains are running, which increasingly they are not. Service was suspended for a day in mid-October after storm Callum wrecked a culvert. In 2014 the line closed for two months to repair storm damage.
据英国《经济学人》网站11月3日的消息：自从1846年以来，火车已在道利什沿海铁路线上扎堆，这条铁路线紧靠埃克塞特和牛顿阿伯特之间的德文郡海滩。乘客可以欣赏到英吉利海峡的壮丽风光，也会在汹涌的海浪撞击混凝土堤坝和淹没迎面而来的火车时惊颤不已。如果火车仍在运营，这样的场景就会上演。但是，当下沿线上的火车正在逐步停运。在风暴Callum破坏了一个涵洞后，这项运营服务在10月中旬暂停一天。2014年，道利什铁路线关闭了两个月，用来修复强暴风雨带来的破坏。
Such disruptions are likely to become more common. A report published on October 26th by the Committee on Climate Change, which advises the government, warns that rising waters pose a growing threat to England’s shores. They have edged up by 15cm (six inches) since 1900 and could rise by another 50-80cm by the end of the century, as a result of man-made global warming. Unlike Kiribati or other atoll nations, the sceptred isle would not be wiped off the map. But stretches of its coastline would be.
这样的破坏或许会变得越来月常见。英国气候变化委员10月26日发表的一份报告警告说,上升的海平面会给英格兰海岸带来与日俱增的威胁。该委员会为英国政府建言献策。自1900年以来，人为的全球变暖现象导致英国海平面上升了15厘米（6英寸），到本世纪末可能会再上升50-80厘米。同基里巴斯等环礁岛国家不同的是，这个主权国家不会在地图上被抹去。但它海岸线上的一些延伸区域将会消失。
Besides 436km (271 miles) of railway, the authors identify 930km of main roads, 187,000 hectares of farmland and as many as 520,000 properties already exposed to a one-in-200 chance of coastal flooding each year. If Earth warms by another 1°C, which the world’s current policies all but guarantee, these figures could double, affecting 1.1m Britons. The committee puts the damage to properties alone at £370m ($470m) a year by 2080.
除了436公里（271英里）的铁路，这份报告的起草者证实了930公里的交通要道，18.7万公顷的农田和多达52万处的房产有可能遭遇每年1/200概率的沿海洪水。在当前政策的保障下，如果地球温度再上升1摄氏度，这些数字将会翻倍，影响到110万英国人。英国气候变化委员估计，到2080年，仅房产损失就达到3.7亿英镑（4.7亿美元）。
England appears unprepared (the report did not consider Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, which pursue their own policies). Councils rely on outdated planning guidelines. Homeowners in safe areas cross-subsidise the insurance of those in risky ones through Flood Re, a government-run scheme. The property market reflects clifftop villas’ breathtaking views rather than their hair-raising risk of tumbling into the sea.
英格兰似乎措手不及（这份报告未含奉行自主政策的威尔士，苏格兰和北爱尔兰）。议会依靠过时的规划指引。安全区的业主通过英国政府运行的“Flood Re”机制为处在危险之中的业主提供交叉补贴。房产市场宣扬的是悬崖顶部别墅的震撼人心的美景，而忽略业主跌入大海的毛骨悚然的危险。
Building seawalls and other defences to protect important stretches of shoreline from rising tides could cost £6.4bn-9.2bn. Big cities like Liverpool or Newcastle can count on help when the water comes. But a tenth of the 1,600km of endangered coast may prove too uneconomical to safeguard, according to the report. Its authors will not say where; that is up to the government. But imperilled residents surely deserve to know.
建筑海堤等防护措施以保护重要的海岸线免受上涨潮水的影响可能花费64至92亿英镑。利物浦或纽卡斯尔等大城市在涨潮时可以指望救助。但这份报告指出，占据1/10的1600公里的危险海岸或被证实是经济不合算的以至于无法保护。这份报告的起草者并未说明具体位置；这一切取决于政府。但陷入危险的民众当然理应知晓。
https://www.economist.com/britain/2018/11/03/rising-sea-levels-threaten-britains-shores
