01 A ticket to where?
Donald Trump and J.D. Vance carry a message about the direction of the party most likely to run America共和党真的好会造势，特朗普被刺杀后马上就有新人出
One of the best arguments Democrats can use against Mr Trump is that he threatens democratic norms. Yet bis courage in the moment of the shooting made him seem, however briefly, more like a defender of American values than a threat to them特朗普被刺杀后的表现确实厉害，超勇，心理素质是厉害的
For one thing, this week has crystallized how utterly Mr Trump dominates the Republican Party.现在才是共和党的主导地位吗？我以为一直都是的
So confident is he of victory today that he has tapped J.D. Vance, an articulate anti-globalist anti-big business, anti-immigration, pro-worker, MAGA enthusiast who has little experience and does nothing to broaden Mr Trump's electoral appeal...Now he has become Mr Trump's heir apparent天哪，这人是这个形象吗？竟然还是特朗普继承人，小红书好多人捧他写的书
外交方面：On Taiwan, Mr Vance's views are unclear, while Mr Trump says the island should pay for American protection from China. On Ukraine, Mr Vance has gone further than Mr Trump, saying that he does not care which side wins, to the alarm of European allies. Recently he has backed away from this.妈呀，好疯，我唯一想到的是特朗普不会随便给其他国家钱花了
美国经济：Mr Vance’s views mix online meme culture, venture-capital-speak and some lefty policies that would thrill Bernie Sanders. He wants the state to protect blue-collar workers from competition and raise the minimumwage to $20 an hour. 竟然还融合了左翼的观点，提高最低工资，这样下去左翼右翼又要傻傻分不清了
Were he to become vice-president, Mr Vance's views would not automatically become the positions of Mr Trump's government... And, crucially, Mr Vance's views fit with Mr Trump's all-caps electoral platform.虽然万斯观点不能完全代表特朗普的立场，但是符合特朗普的竞选纲领
Mr Trump leaves the convention in Milwaukee stronger than seemed possible only a few months ago. His legal cases no longer threaten him, his party is in thrall to him, the polls promise a clean sweep of Congress and the White House.现实真的比电视剧还魔幻，现在特朗普是受害的宝宝，轻易打不得，说不得，会犯众怒
02 can Kamala Harris win?
Joe Biden's vice-president has an extraordinary opportunity. But she also has a mountain to climb她有机会赢！！！
Her task is to make the election a referendum on Mr Trump,who is unpopular outside his devoted MAGA base...she must also satisfy voter that she is equal to the job of president让不喜欢特朗普的人也投票，还要让人觉得她有胜任总统的能力
her chances of success rest on one enormous piece of luck and three tests of her political instincts：她的成功在于机遇和3个考验
机遇:the luck was Mr Biden's obstinacy.Had he given way sooner,the party could have held an open primary and Ms Harris might have lost时机的重要性
考验1：The first is to articulate the convictions that will be the foundation for her presidency, without lapsing into promises to hand out welfare cheques阐明将成为她总统任期基础的信念
例如：acknowledge voters' struggle with inflation,speak out strongly for women reproductive rights,trans women have unfair advantage in competitive women's sports女性候选人说女性的话题就是有说服力
考验2：The second test is what she makes of having been a prosecutor and a state attorney-general作为检察官和州检察长的经历
例如：bash away at Mr Trump as a convicted felon,use her experience as the foundation for abroad argument that she can be trusted to defend American values at home and abroad,should endorse America's global role as the guardian of norms and rules专业对口的强烈抨击罪犯特朗普，捍卫美国价值观，支持美国作为规范和规则守护者的全球角色
考验3：The third test is to offer America hope给美国带来希望（这个在哪个国家来说都挺难的）
例如：peddle apocalyptic visions of a second Trump term原来策略是说特朗普不好，我想成了她要宣传由她领导这个国家未来会有多好
Ms Harris is running a rushed operation. if her campaign starts to go awry,recrimination about her uncontested nomination will soon follow哈里斯仓促行动，如果出现差错很快就会被指责
例子：her first big decision：vice-president Josh Shapiro，could help in a must-win state,但是竞争对手是Mark Kelly，would also add to the ticket只能说决定仓促，结果未出很难说对错
